ZINC's online Calgary poll shows momentum shifts leading into the final six weeks before the vote
With just under six weeks to go before the election, a poll released today by Calgary’s Zinc Research shows that Calgary’s mayoral race has begun to take shape, with Ric McIver, Barb Higgins and Naheed Nenshi staking claim to the top three positions. The poll of 450 Calgary adults, taken between September 3rd to 7th, has McIver holding the lead among all candidates with 40% of the decided vote, ahead of Barb Higgins (at 27%) and Naheed Nenshi (at 12%).
“McIver has held steady,” says Zinc’s president and managing director.“But the big shift has been in Barb Higgins standings.” Her rating has dropped from her launch high of 44% (Vote/Lean, Decided Voters) (NRG Research, July 30 2010) to 30% in the current poll. At the same time, Singh explains, “Naheed Nenshi’s rating has grown from 2% in the same poll to 10%.”
The ZINC research poll revealed that 68% of Calgarians said they would definitely be voting on October 18th. Among these, McIver holds steady at 40%, while Higgins dips three (3) percentage points (from 30% to 27%) and voting intentions for Nenshi increases by two (2) percentage points (from 10% to 12%).
While the McIver and Higgins continue to score the highest levels of awareness and familiarity with Calgary’s electorate, elections are often a question of which candidate has the momentum. Coming into September, the Nenshi campaign is registering the highest momentum shift of all candidates. Among voters familiar with specific candidates, 48% said that their opinion of Nenshi had improved during the campaign, compared to 7% who said it had worsened (Net: +41). Comparatively, the same number of Calgarians said that their opinion of Higgins has improved (19%) as well as worsened (19%) since her launch (Net: 0). The McIver campaign managed some modest gains on this key measure (Net: +4%).
“This poll has shown us that, within a crowded field, the leading candidates are becoming clear,” concludes Singh. “McIver, Higgins and Nenshi have established themselves as the front runners.”About the poll
This poll was conducted as part of an ongoing study of issues undertaken by ZINC Research as part of its online Calgary Omnibus Survey. The survey took place between September 3rd to September 7th via an online poll of 450 Calgarians (adults, 18 years+). The sample is census-representative (2010 City of Calgary Civic Census) by city region, gender and age. Based on tracking studies, approximately 90% of adult Calgarians have access to the Internet, and this survey methodology is considered representative of the city’s population.
For further information, contact:
Brian F. Singh
President and Managing Director
P: (403) 269-7526 C: 403.861.9462PDF link to survey charts